Early speculation by most was predicting that Oahu would lose population and State House seats, and the neighbor-islands would gain them – however that may not be the case.

The below are raw numbers that reflect zero shift of any state legislative seats from Oahu to the Neighbor Island – I’m not sure how adjusting the population counts with regards to military and university students will impact this, but it would seem the adjustment would need to be significant to result in any change or shift in House seats.

Basic unadjusted estimates – Additional eyeballs and analysis of these numbers is welcome, but below is my “first take”.

2020 Census State of Hawaii as per August 12, 2021 report
Raw numbers not adjusted for full-time residents versus military and out of state students

Doing the basic math to determine the legislative district allocation per County –

Total State of Hawaii 2020 Population 1,455,271

25 State Senators = 58,210 people per S District
51 State House = 28,535 people per H District

Note: Number in parenthesis represents the status quo number of legislative districts allocated to the particular County. The preceding number with a decimal point is the estimated number of legislative districts for 2022 based on the census numbers but not including any adjustments for military residents or out-of-state student population.

Honolulu 2021 Population 1,016,508
State Senators 17.5 (17)
State House 35.6 (35)

Hawaii Population 200,629
State Senators 3.45 (4)
State House 7.03 (7)

Maui Population 164,754
State Senators 2.83 (3)
State House 5.77 (6)

Kauai Population 73,298
State Senators 1.258 (1)
State House 2.568 (3)

Read today’s breaking news on the new census numbers released: Civil Beat https://www.civilbeat.org/2021/08/2020-census-oahus-population-tops-1-million-for-the-first-time/

For a primer on the “re-districting” process read: https://garyhooser.blog/2021/07/17/unpacking-the-2022-hawaii-reapportionment-redistricting-discussion/

Drill down further into the 2020 census numbers and compare to 2010:
https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/2020-population-and-housing-state-data.html