Afghanistan – One thing you can do now to help

Urgent Call To Action: Please consider helping my daughter Kelli-Rose Hooser Simmons as she mobilizes community support to help Afghan refugee families currently arriving in Philadelphia en-route to Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst where my son-in-law Justin, a Major in the U.S. Air Force, is now stationed.
“Afghan evacuees expected at Philly airport as soon as Friday”
https://www.inquirer.com/news/afghan-refugees-philadelphia-airport-20210826.html

Kelli-Rose has set up an Amazon Gift Account that lists the items most needed at the moment (diapers, toiletries, etc). Please consider visiting this account, helping out by purchasing some of these much-needed items – and instructing they be shipped directly to the “Kelli-Rose Simmons, Gift Registry Address COLLINGSWOOD, NJ” which will be a “shipping option” listed.

Please go here to help: https://www.amazon.com/registries/custom/2JP0V63YIVI1Y/guest-view

Thank you to all. Given the tragedy now unfolding, I encourage all who are able to chip in and help with this. As the situation unfolds – I will keep you posted in the future.

Mahalo,

Gary

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Effort by Congressman Case and conservative faction in House fails – for now

Update on the current attempt by conservative members of Congress (including Hawaii Congressman Ed Case) to derail/slow/stop the expansion of affordable housing, health care, child and family support, and climate change mitigation.

Recap:
President Biden and the Democratic Majority in Congress are proposing to invest $3.5 trillion in social, human, and environmental infrastructure. The proposal would significantly increase investment in healthcare, affordable housing, environmental protection, education, children and family support, and climate change.

Hawaii Congressman Ed Case, together with 8 (now 9) other Democrats in Congress have joined with the Republican Minority to block its passage.

Bottom line: At the end of the day, the effort by Congressman Case and his conservative friends in the House to block this effort failed. Mahalo plenty to all of you who took the time to call and email the Congressman to express your concern and encourage him to change his position.

Of course, this is politics and Case will claim he won and accomplished his goal of ensuring the separation of two very important measures.

The truth is that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi agreed to what she had already agreed to, which was the passage of the “bricks and mortar” infrastructure bill by October 1st which is the day it needs to be passed anyway to maintain the continuity of prior funding.

After all the drama she appeased Case and the conservatives and “agreed to hold a vote on the infrastructure bill by September 27” which she was planning on doing anyway in order to meet her own October 1 deadline.

Please read the below and make up your own mind.
Civil Beat – After holding out, Case backs $3.5 trillion budget deal https://www.civilbeat.org/beat/after-holding-out-case-backs-3-5t-budget-spending-deal/

I encourage readers to also take the time to review the comment section and offer comments of their own.

Here is a particularly insightful and incitable comment from one Civil Beat reader – “Bart 808”.
.
“Please stop calling him and his centrist clique “moderate”. That is a biased word that implies he is the sober voice of reason while the others are immoderate. Just call him a conservative Democrat.

Ed tried to portray his effort as though he was standing up to Pelosi. This story repeats his framework when he talks about him opposing “Pelosi’s plan.” The plan to hold off on voting for the $1T infrastructure bill was worked out in an agreement between Biden, Pelosi, Schumer, and Senate budget chair Bernie Sanders. It had the support of almost all Democrats in the Senate, except Manchin and Sienna, as well as of the vast majority of Ed Case’s Democratic colleagues in the House.

As Case and the “Sabotage Caucus” soon found out. They were isolated from their colleagues who did not appreciate the grandstanding that put at risk two massive and much-needed infusions of money into infrastructure. Objectively, Ed was aligning with Mitch McConnell and in opposition the almost all the other Democrats. Not just Pelosi. He overplayed his hand. Not for the first time.”

More reading on the topic:

The Hill – Pelosi frames deal with centrists on infrastructure as a clarification – https://thehill.com/homenews/house/569350-pelosi-frames-deal-with-centrists-on-infrastructure-as-a-clarification

The Hill – Progressives dig in for fall fight with centrists – https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/569425-progressives-dig-in-for-fall-fight-with-centrists

The Capital Gazette – Moderates bring House to a standstill
https://www.capitalgazette.com/news/nation-world/ct-aud-nw-congress-infrastructure-20210824-x3wbrsotefcxtp7e6vyrf6a2ve-story.html

I want to reiterate one point, one more time: These 10 members of Congress are not “moderates”. Rather they are conservative corporatists, masquerading as moderates while cloaking themselves as Democrats.

What keeps them awake at night is not the man or woman living under the bridge, and it’s not the existential threat of climate change, nor is it the millions of innocent civilians that die in endless wars. What keeps them awake at night is worrying about the health and welfare of corporations and making sure the 1% is treated “fairly”.

Mahalo to all for helping to spread the word and for taking the time to call and email Congressman Ed Case on this incredibly important issue.

Gary Hooser
Executive Director – Pono Hawaii Initiative
Board President – Hawaii Alliance for Progressive Action
Former Vice-Chair Democratic Party of Hawaii, former Hawaii State Senator, formerly younger than I am now.

IMPORTANT NOTE: IF you would like to receive my occasional email updates, missives, and messages, please subscribe here: https://policy-and-politics.mailchimpsites.com

In an effort to reduce email costs which are based on volume, AND minimize the number of email messages ending up in spam folders, I need you to formally subscribe (even if you have been getting the emails for years already). It’s easy, secure, and free for you. https://policy-and-politics.mailchimpsites.com


Favorite grandson Rixon Lee Hooser

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Urgent – Call Hawaii Congressman Ed Case today!

While many of us here in Hawaii are working hard to increase support and protections for working people and families, one of our only two members of the U.S. House of Representatives is fighting for the other side.

Note to regular subscribers: This is a slightly edited repost of a similar blog item posted a few days ago. I apologize for the confusion…but because of the timeliness of the voting occurring tonight or tomorrow…I decided to rewrite slightly and repost.

President Biden and the Democratic Majority in Congress are proposing to invest $3.5 trillion in social, human, and environmental infrastructure. The proposal would significantly increase investment in healthcare, affordable housing, environmental protection, education, children and family support, and climate change.

Hawaii Congressman Ed Case, together with 8 other Democrats in Congress have joined with the Republican Minority to block its passage.

We are presented with a once-in-a-generation opportunity to make systemic change and the saboteurs come from within our own ranks.

Congressman Ed Case and his gang of 8 – need to be primaried. But first, please call his office in Washington DC at (202) 225-2726 or his Honolulu Office, 808-650-6688, and directly but politely request that he change his position and support this critically important measure. If you prefer email, his complete contact info is at https://case.house.gov/contact/
Please call today August 23 or at the latest, tomorrow August 24 by 6pm.

Who needs Republicans when you have Democrats like this? There, I said it. We need to elect Democrats who believe in and support the values and goals of the Democratic Party. Because of the very slim majority held by Democrats in the House, it is possible that Case’s maneuvering could indeed actually prevent the possibility of this critically important measure becoming a reality.

While characterized as “moderates” over and over again by national media, Congressman Case and the 8 other members of Congress he has joined with are not moderates at all. https://www.npr.org/2021/08/13/1027371749/moderate-house-democrats-infrastructure-budget-vote-pelosi

Recent national polling indicates that 58% of voters support passing the American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan together using the reconciliation process. 82% of Democrats feel this way. Normal everyday people recognize that those who have more should pay more and that we are all in this together. These are not radical leftwing concepts.

Most people believe that workers deserve an honest day’s pay for an honest day’s work. Most also support free college tuition, paid sick leave, health care, and increased affordable housing. Recent studies also show that a majority of the population favor reduced military spending and believe that climate change is real and deserves immediate attention.

These 9 members of Congress are not “moderates”. Rather they are conservative corporatists, masquerading as moderates while cloaking themselves as Democrats.
What keeps them awake at night is not the man or woman living under the bridge, and it’s not the existential threat of climate change, nor is it the millions of innocent civilians that die in endless wars. What keeps them awake at night is worrying about the health and welfare of corporations and making sure the 1% is treated “fairly”.

82% of Democrats support passing this desperately needed package via the reconciliation process. Nearly every elected figure at every level of government in Hawaii is a member of the Democratic Party and is in support of passing this measure. U.S. Senators Brian Schatz and Mazie Hirono, and Representative Kai Kahele have all expressed strong support for passage. There is a sufficient majority of Democrats in Congress to pass this IF Case and his gang of 9 don’t mess it all up.

Congressman Case is clearly out of touch with his Hawaii constituents and with his Party. Voters in Hawaii might consider giving him a call at his Washington DC Office at (202) 225-2726 and encourage him to reconsider his position.

Gary Hooser
http://www.garyhooser.com
Former Vice-Chair Democratic Party of Hawaii, former Hawaii State Senator

IMPORTANT NOTE: IF you want to continue receiving my email updates and messages, please subscribe here: https://policy-and-politics.mailchimpsites.com
In an effort to reduce email costs which are based on volume, AND minimize the number of email messages ending up in spam folders, I need you to formally subscribe. It’s easy, secure, and free for you. https://policy-and-politics.mailchimpsites.com

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Learning from Afghanistan – pushing back against an expanding military presence in Hawaii and everywhere

The U.S. war in Afghanistan began on Oct. 7, 2001, with airstrikes against the terror group Al Qaida in retaliation for the Sept. 11 attacks on the twin towers in New York City. That attack killed 2,976 American civilians. 

Per the Associated Press (AP) the resulting 20-year war in Afghanistan has to date killed 172,390 people: 47,245 Afghan civilians, 2,448 American soldiers, 3,846 U.S. contractors, 66,000 Afghan national military and police, 1,144 NATO allies, 51,191 Taliban and other opposition fighters, 444 aid-workers, and 72 journalists. 

In 2011 Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed in neighboring Pakistan. 

The financial cost of the Afghan war ranges from an $824.9 billion estimate provided by the pentagon, to over $5 trillion estimated by Harvard and Brown University researchers. 

The current situation, the threats to personal safety, and the emotional trauma unfolding today in Afghanistan are beyond our comprehension. While continuing occupation of the country is not an option, we must somehow fulfill our promise to those of assistance to those who were made that pledge.

Each of us who claim America as our home is responsible to some extent for this 20-year tragedy. We let it happen.  

While some stood up and spoke out in opposition, most were cowed into silence by the pervasive outrage and calls for retribution following the tragedy of 9/11. 

Just days after the Sept.11, 2001, terror attacks, California U.S. Representative Barbara Lee cast the lone “no” vote on a resolution to authorize military force in Afghanistan against those responsible for 9/11. The vote was 420 to 1. In the Senate the vote was unanimous. 

We cannot avoid this historic stain on our legacy, but we can say never again.  

And we can start here at home by pushing back against ongoing attempts to expand the military’s presence in Hawai’i. At some point, and that point is now – we must say enough already. No more military expansion in Hawaii. We need to reduce the military’s footprint in our islands, not expand it.

Here on Kauai, there is a push to grow the Pacific Missile Range Facility (PMRF) even larger via the construction of a multi-billion dollar radar facility. The Pentagon itself says they don’t want it and it isn’t needed. Unfortunately, our Congressional delegation has found it necessary to force the item into the defense budget.

The Kauai system is being heavily promoted by the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA) a 501c4 nonprofit whose mission is to “make the world safer by advocating for the development and deployment of missile defense systems to defend the United States, its armed forces and its allies against missile threats.”

You can be sure that defense contractors General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, BAE, Raytheon, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin to name just a few are big supporters of MDAA as they were undoubtedly also major profiteers from the 20-year Afghan war. You can also be sure that these same entities are generous contributors to the political campaigns of those with decision-making authority over this project, and the technology and machinery of war in general.

“In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex…” 1961, Dwight D. Eisenhower, 34th president – farewell address. Think about the wisdom in these words.

In addition to expanding its war machine on the Garden Island, the U.S. military is seeking to renew its activities on the Big Island and on Oahu.

In Hawaii County, the Pohakuloa Training Area covers nearly 36 square miles and is the largest contiguous live-fire range and maneuver training area in Hawaii. The Army paid $1 for the original 65-year lease which is set to expire in 2029.

On Oahu, the Army leases 4,370 acres at Poamoho Training Area in the Ko’olau Mountains in north-central Oahu and 1,170 acres of state land called the Kahuku Training Area.

Makua Military Reservation in northwest Oahu has been used for military training for almost a century, and the Army has leased 760 acres from the state for the past 57 years. These leases also are set to expire in 2029. The Army is soliciting oral or written public comments on the proposed renewal of leases for three sites at bit.ly/armyoahu through Sept. 1.

My father was a career Navy man, a chief boatswain’s mate who served honorably for over 30 years. I have friends and relatives who are veterans and who have served in the Middle East. I am proud and thankful for their service, and I believe the United States must maintain a strong defense.

However, enough is enough.

America has the largest military presence on the planet with 800 bases located in 70 different countries, on all 7 continents. US special forces operations have been active recently in over 138 nations. For context Russia has 8 bases located in former Russian republics and China is now considering its first overseas base. (The Nation)

We must learn from Afghanistan and reverse the path we have been on for far too many years that has destroyed far too many lives.

What can we, just simple citizens living simple lives actually do to stop this madness?

Emulating California Representative Barbara Lee would be a good place to start. Have the courage of your convictions and reach out and share your concerns with those members of Congress that you elected to serve you in Washington DC. Tell them to please learn from Afghanistan, reverse the path of endless war and destruction, and starting beating our swords into plowshares.

Yes, it’s complicated and no it’s not really that complicated. I get it that the path forward is not simple, nor easy but it starts with simply saying no more.

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Breaking: Census releases 2020 numbers by County – Potential impacts on legislative redistricting reviewed

Early speculation by most was predicting that Oahu would lose population and State House seats, and the neighbor-islands would gain them – however that may not be the case.

The below are raw numbers that reflect zero shift of any state legislative seats from Oahu to the Neighbor Island – I’m not sure how adjusting the population counts with regards to military and university students will impact this, but it would seem the adjustment would need to be significant to result in any change or shift in House seats.

Basic unadjusted estimates – Additional eyeballs and analysis of these numbers is welcome, but below is my “first take”.

2020 Census State of Hawaii as per August 12, 2021 report
Raw numbers not adjusted for full-time residents versus military and out of state students

Doing the basic math to determine the legislative district allocation per County –

Total State of Hawaii 2020 Population 1,455,271

25 State Senators = 58,210 people per S District
51 State House = 28,535 people per H District

Note: Number in parenthesis represents the status quo number of legislative districts allocated to the particular County. The preceding number with a decimal point is the estimated number of legislative districts for 2022 based on the census numbers but not including any adjustments for military residents or out-of-state student population.

Honolulu 2021 Population 1,016,508
State Senators 17.5 (17)
State House 35.6 (35)

Hawaii Population 200,629
State Senators 3.45 (4)
State House 7.03 (7)

Maui Population 164,754
State Senators 2.83 (3)
State House 5.77 (6)

Kauai Population 73,298
State Senators 1.258 (1)
State House 2.568 (3)

Read today’s breaking news on the new census numbers released: Civil Beat https://www.civilbeat.org/2021/08/2020-census-oahus-population-tops-1-million-for-the-first-time/

For a primer on the “re-districting” process read: https://garyhooser.blog/2021/07/17/unpacking-the-2022-hawaii-reapportionment-redistricting-discussion/

Drill down further into the 2020 census numbers and compare to 2010:
https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/2020-population-and-housing-state-data.html

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Maui Money Report – Senate, House, Mayor, Council

All of the below Maui seats are up for election in 2022. Below information is from the August 2, 2021 Campaign Spending Reports and indicates the “surplus” of funds each incumbent had in their campaign bank account.

Extensive additional detail is available by reviewing the actual reports available here:
https://csc.hawaii.gov/CFSPublic/ReportList.php

State Senate

Gilbert Keith-Agaran (D) District 5 Wailuku, Waihe‘e, Kahului
$133,328

Lynn DeCoite (D) District 7 Hana, East and Upcountry Maui, Moloka‘i, Lana‘i, Kaho’olawe
$65,919

Rosalyn H Baker (D) District 6 South and West Maui
$44,202

State House of Representatives

Troy Hashimoto (D) District 8 Kahakuloa, Waihee, Waiehu, Puuohala, Wailuku, Waikapu
$56,915

Justin Woodson (D) District 9 Kahului, Puunene, Old Sand Hills, Maui Lani
$41,960

Kyle Yamashita (D) District 12 Spreckelsville, Pukalani, Makawao, Kula, Keokea, Ulupalakua, Kahului
$24,768
*** Raised $3,650 during June 2021

Tina Wildberger (D) District 11 Kihei, Wailea, Makena
$7,414

Angus McKelvey (D) District 10 West Maui, Maalaea, North Kihei
$1,264

Linda Clark (D) (newly appointed) District 13 Haiku, Hana, Kaupo, Kipahulu, Nahiku, Paia, Kahoolawe, Lanai, Molokai, Molokini
($0)

Maui County Mayor
Non-Partisan

Michael Victorino – $85,736

Maui County Council
Non-Partisan – voting is County-wide but each represents a specific district.

Yuki Lei Sugimura $56,088
(Upcountry)

Alice Lee $28,787
(Wailuku-Waihee-Waikapu)
Chair

Mike Molina $21,199
(Makawao-Haiku-Paia)

Tamara Paltin $19,585
(West Maui)

Keani Rawlins-Fernandez $14,594
(Molokai)
Vice-Chair

Tasha Kama $9,874
(Kahului)

Kelly Takaya King $6,209
(South Maui)

Shane Sinenci $5,154
(East Maui)

Gabe Johnson $1,606
(Lanai)

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Vaccination, Politics, Health & Individual Choice

We must keep our eye on the prize. The COVID pandemic is real and will not end until we are united in our action to end it. We must beat this thing and we must pull together to make that happen.

My plan is to live to be 100, to see my grandchildren have children of their own, and to dance at their children’s wedding.

I’m 67 years old, take no regular medication whatsoever, and maintain a fairly healthy diet. While I could use more regular exercise, I’m in generally good health.

My birth father Marvin Lee Hooser, passed away at the young age of 57 from respiratory problems associated with emphysema. During the course of my life, when I have occasionally fallen ill with a cold or flu, respiratory issues sometimes debilitating in nature including bronchitis and walking pneumonia, too often followed.

Given my history, it’s clear that any respiratory illness exacerbated or precipitated by a COVID infection…is not something my body would likely handle well.

So, let’s move back to Zoom for now. And please, if you have not already done so, get vaccinated. I have been vaccinated and will get a booster whenever it’s available and recommended by my primary care physician.

While I believe in personal choice when it comes to health matters, if you choose not to get vaccinated please wear your mask and limit your social interactions. On a personal note – I prefer not meeting in person with anyone who has not yet been vaccinated.

There, I said it. I’m trying to respect those who feel differently on this issue, but the bottom line is the protection of my own life, my family’s personal health, and the health of our community.

If you have religious or medical reasons for not being vaccinated, I respect your choice and wish you well.

But please don’t base this critical decision on YouTube videos, politics, or the advice of people who claim a global conspiracy.

The current hysteria over vaccines and vaccine mandates is based on fear and driven by a seemingly endless wave of misinformation. And of course, all good conspiracy theories are grounded in the premise that “it could be true”. Yes, it could be true – but it’s not. Most misinformation starts as a kernel of truth taken out of context and quickly strays into speculation and hyperbole.

Modern vaccine history began in the late 18th century with the discovery of smallpox immunization by Edward Jenner. Vaccines have been used since then to eliminate smallpox, fight the polio virus and prevent infectious diseases like measles, diphtheria, and whooping cough.

Though the current angst reverberating around the state surrounds “vaccine mandates,” all 50 states have for years mandated the vaccination of students. Vaccine mandates are not new. Hawaii currently requires all those attending public/private school grades kindergarten – 12 to be vaccinated against Diphtheria, Tetanus, Pertussis, Polio, Hepatitis B, Hepatitis A, Measles, Mumps, Rubella, and Chickenpox. Hawaii Revised Statutes: §302A-1154 states:

“(a) No child shall attend any school in the State unless the child presents to the appropriate school official documentation satisfactory to the department of health that the child has received immunizations against communicable diseases as required by the department of health.”

Similar to school admission policies, employers, both public and private, have the right and many would say the obligation to require their employees to be vaccinated in order to protect all employees and customers.

Unfortunately, the escalating rhetoric has resulted in people claiming they are being “forced” to vaccinate. Actually, no one is forcing anyone to do anything. Parents are free to homeschool their children if they object to vaccinations for religious, or health reasons. And of course, individuals have the right to quit their job and find another one if they so choose. Apparently, the job market is hot at the moment and so that should not be a problem.

To all who have so far refrained from choosing to take the shot, I encourage you to review the credible data, speak to those in the medical community whom you trust – and make a decision that best protects your own life, and health of your family.

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Hawaii Policy and Politics – an email list with an attitude.

I’m asking today that you consider “opting-in” to my email list – Hawaii Policy & Politics at – https://policy-and-politics.mailchimpsites.com

It’s free, it’s easy, and it’s secure. And I promise not to deluge you with meaningless pap.

I will however send you occasional messages on political and policy stuff. Trust me, I will only send you items that will add value to your understanding of policy and politics and/or will make you smile and think a bit.

Soon I will be sending out “candidate highlights” – focusing on those new candidates who are stepping up to run in Hawaii’s 2022 elections.

Occasionally I will email you a “call to action” and ask that you call or email elected officials poised to vote on something important.

As the election season gets closer, I’ll send out “endorsement lists” of those candidates whom I believe deserve support – and I will explain how I came to that conclusion.

I read every single response or reply also, and welcome your input, ideas, and suggestions.

In an effort to maximize efficiency, reduce email costs which are based on volume, AND minimize the number of email messages ending up in spam folders, I’m asking all who are already on the list, and who wish to continue receiving my email, to formally subscribe at https://policy-and-politics.mailchimpsites.com

Please join me and subscribe. If I bore you, or otherwise don’t add value – you can unsubscribe with a single click.

We need to win in 2022. To win, we need to stay connected and be able to take action together, and quickly. This email list is a way to do that.

The famous right-wing radio host Karl Rove said, “The guy with the best list wins. I am sure this is true for those on the left as well.

Sincerely,
Gary Hooser

Photo of my granddaughter Isabella hoping you will opt-in

Photo of my granddaughter Isabella hoping you will opt-in!

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Which Hawaii State Senators will receive two year terms in 2022?

Attention political operatives: If you believe my below assumptions are incorrect, please let me know asap. But I believe, I’ve figured out who will get those pesky two year terms. This potentially could impact which State Senators decide to retire…or not.

Perhaps this is common knowledge among insider operatives already…but the question of who would likely be getting a two year term versus the “normal” four year term has been bugging me. So…I took it upon myself to figure it out and began by reading the State Constitution (cited below at bottom).

For further background read: Unpacking the 2022 Hawaii Reapportionment/Redistricting Discussion –  https://garyhooser.blog/2021/07/17/unpacking-the-2022-hawaii-reapportionment-redistricting-discussion/

This is important – 

  1. Every State Senator is up for election in 2022.
  2. State Senate seats are normally 4 year terms, EXCEPT in the election preceding and following “reapportionment” that comes every ten years.
  3. The State Constitution (see below) seems to say that those Senators who were elected in 2020, “if practicable” should not be given a two year term in 2022.
  4. This seems to translate to the following list of State Senators who will be receiving a 2 year term if elected in 2022.
  • District #1 – Sen. Acasio
  • District #3 – Sen. Kanuha
  • District #4 – Sen. Inouye
  • District #6 – Sen. Baker
  • District #7 – Sen. DeCoite
  • District #12 – Sen. Moriwaki
  • District #17 – Sen. Nishihara**
  • District #18 – Sen. Kidani
  • District #21 – Sen. Shimabukuro
  • District #23 – Sen. Riviere
  • District #24 – Sen. Keohokalole

** Announced retirement and not running in 2022

Note there are only eleven State Senate Seats listed but the commission must assign twelve.

This may be related to two seats that had special elections to the remaining terms for District #16 Misalucha and District #19 Fevella 

*this point is unclear but both ran and won election in 2020

If the above calculations and assumptions are correct, then in addition to the eleven Senators listed above, a twelfth Senator will be chosen among the remaining fourteen who ran in 2020.  Thus this person would run 3 campaigns – 2020, 2022 and 2024. 

This is where the phrase “when practicable” is applicable as quoted in the state constitution below.  I assume this would be done by “picking a name out of a hat” or similar.

Hawaii State Constitution

Article 4 – Section 8. The reapportionment commission shall, as part of the reapportionment plan, assign two-year terms for twelve senate seats for the election immediately following the adoption of the reapportionment plan. The remaining seats shall be assigned four-year terms. Insofar as practicable, the commission shall assign the two-year terms to senate seats so that the resident population of each senate district shall have no more than two regular senate elections for a particular senate seat within the six-year period beginning in the even-numbered year prior to the reapportionment year; Translation: This seems to mean those running in 2020 and then running again in 2022, should not “if practicable” have to run again in 2024.

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Money matters – Hawaii elections by the numbers

The latest fundraising numbers posted by the Campaign Spending Commission tell an interesting story, both locally and state-wide.

The first big question I have is: What is Senator Donovan Dela Cruz running for? Will it be Governor (my guess) or Lieutenant Governor?  As the current Chair of the Senate Ways and Means (WAM) Committee, Senator Dela Cruz already holds significant power and influence over the state budget, and thus over all state government.

Why risk losing the power and influence he already holds by taking a chance on the Governor’s race? Why keep holding fundraiser after fundraiser unless he intends in fact to do so?

With $871,348 in the bank and still counting, I’m thinking the Lieutenant Governor’s race is his for the taking. But why bother? The LG position holds no tangible power whatsoever.  Yes, it provides a platform, elevates one’s voice, and is a stepping stone to be Governor, but why would someone who is in a position of significant power NOW, settle for LG and be resigned to wait 8 years for a chance to be Governor?

Nope: My guess and it’s pure speculation is that Senator Dela Cruz ($871,348) will be announcing shortly his entry into the race to be Hawaii’s next Governor. Move over Lieutenant Governor Josh Green ($636,120), former Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell ($509,202), and businesswomen Vickie Cayetano ($0).

I’m thinking the price of poker for the gubernatorial race just went up.

Other top fundraisers sitting now in the legislature include House Finance Chair Sylvia Luke who is sitting on a $423,603 balance in her campaign war chest and House Speaker Scott Saiki who has a respectable $227,079 – especially when you take into consideration a typical House race should only require $40,000 to $80,000.

What about the race for Lieutenant Governor? Potential candidates rumored to be considering the LG race include former State Senator and Honolulu Councilmember Ron Menor ($489,229), former State Representative and Honolulu Councilmember Joey Manahan ($88,012), and former Honolulu Councilmember Ikaika Anderson ($436,779).

Media reports and the rumor mill have also mentioned former House Speaker Scott Saiki ($227,079) and former State Senator/WAM Chair Jill Tokuda ($0) as likely LG contenders. Today’s Civil Beat reports that Saiki is mulling over the opportunity https://www.civilbeat.org/2021/08/house-speaker-scott-saiki-mulls-a-run-for-lg/

None of the potential candidates appear to be actively fundraising for the race.

Given her long tenure in the Senate and extensive contacts throughout Hawaii, former Senator Tokuda could no doubt boost her balance fairly quickly, but the reality is that she is starting from zero. First-time candidate and public interest attorney Sergio Alcubilla is the only officially announced LG candidate and is just getting started with an account balance of $276.

It is interesting that Kauai’s Senator, Senate President Ronald Kouchi’s campaign account holds only a paltry $55,794. This would normally reflect a candidate who is extremely confident about re-election and is not interested in climbing the political ladder further, or who is not planning to run for reelection. In this case, it seems obvious the former is the case.

Turning to the campaign bank balances of Kauai’s 3 House seats: District #14 (North Shore, Kapaa) Nadine Nakamura is the top fundraiser with $66,924 and seems to be the only one actually prepared for a challenger in 2022. Kauai’s other two Representatives lag behind with District #15 (Wailua Homesteads, Lihue, Puhi) James Tokioka at $20,076 and District #16 (Koloa, Kekaha) Daynette “Dee” Morikawa at $13,141.

Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami who is not up for re-election until 2024 has received statewide accolades for his handling of the COVID crisis. As a result, there has been speculation he might be being lured into a campaign for higher office in 2022. However, with a campaign account balance of only $28,455 and zero fundraising activity, this now seems unlikely.

Kauai Council Chair Arryl Kaneshiro who is “termed out” and unable to run for re-election to the Council is sitting on a war chest of $63,354. This is more than sufficient to mount a run for a House seat or even challenge the Senate President, should he decide to do so (see how rumors get started…).

In descending order the incumbent Councilmember campaign account balances are: KipuKai Kualii $25,505, former Mayor Bernard Carvalho $5,576, Mason Chock Sr. who is also termed out and unable to run for re-election $4,826, Bill DeCosta $26, Luke Evslin  -$669 (negative), and Felicia Cowden -$6,724 (negative).

Other Kauai politicians with campaign funds available that might signal a run for office in 2022 include former Councilmember Ross Kagawa $10,438, and Addison Bulosan who ran for Council and finished #8 in 2020 $7,901.

While the candidate with the most money does not always win, in the world of politics and elections the amount of money available to a candidate is a good indicator as to the viability of a campaign.  

In local elections where “everyone knows everyone” the power of the dollar is less important, but for candidates who lack name recognition or trying to break through and beat an incumbent in a contested race – having sufficient funding is an essential element needed in any winning strategy.

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