What’s it all mean for the residents of Kaua‘i County?

To summarize and speculate a bit, the next Mayor of Kaua‘i will be either Council Chair Mel Rapozo who received 7,580 votes in the Primary, or former Kaua‘i Mayor now Councilmember Bernard Carvalho who got 5,720 votes.

If Councilmember Felicia Cowden, who came in #3 with 3,176 votes, was not in the race, who would have gotten those votes?

Those are the “swing votes” that could very well determine the winner on November 3.

That’s the first question.

The second question is, will the Pacific Resource Partnership (PRP) SuperPac “For a Better Tomorrow” and others, keep dumping money on this race ($138,191 so far) in support of Carvalho?

AND will Rapozo keep getting support from his SuperPac supporters, HiVISION2020 and others ($120,929 and counting)? Source:Civil Beat

The August 8th vote totals for Kaua‘i Mayor:

7,580 40.6% RAPOZO, Mel
5,720 30.6% CARVALHO, Bernard, Jr.
3,176 17.0% COWDEN, Felicia E.
501 2.7% ANDAYA-LINDSEY, Laura
381 2.0% WIDENER, Michaela B.
234 1.3% DENIS, Megeso-William

Ok, what about the 7 member Kaua‘i County Council?

Of the original 26 candidates, the top 14 listed below will “move forward” and be on the November 3rd ballot.

Voters will then vote for “up to 7”, and the top 7 vote-getters become our new Councilmembers.

Doing the math on the Council race is a bit more complicated.

All 14 candidates will “move up” in the “vote counts” on November 3, but “positions in the lineup” will normally remain the same or vary only slightly.

To “move up” in position which is the only metric that matters, means the candidate must increase their vote count at a higher percentage rate than the others – in order to “gain” on the candidate ahead of them in the lineup.

History tells us the top 4 or 5 Councilmembers in the Primary will likely remain in the top 4 or 5 positions in the General.

Ditto for the bottom of the list. Historically #14 never ever moves up to the bottom winners slot of #7. Yes, #14 will get more votes in the General, but so will everyone else.

Cutting to the chase: All the “action” will be focused on the “middle slots”.

This means candidates now sitting in positions #8, #9, and #10 will be trying their best to boost themselves into the winning positions of #5, #6, or #7.

The hard reality: In order for #9 to “move up” to #7, candidates now sitting at #7 and #8 must “drop”. And of course dropping to #8 or below means losing.

Before the math puts you to sleep, let’s translate this further into reality (a speculative reality, but a reality nonetheless).

The top 4 or 5 are “safe”. Kaneshiro, Holland, Ozaki, Correa, and Bulosan are pretty solid in their vote counts and unlikely to slip lower in ranking. They cannot take their election for granted, but so long as they keep on keeping on, they should be fine and will remain in the “winners circle”.

The next 5 or 6 positions are where the movement and action will be.

There are really only two slots in play, #6 and #7.

This means to have a seat at the Council table, Smith, Coots, and Martin must turn it up to overtake Shigemoto, Applegate, and DeCosta.

To speculate further, because Pacific Resource Partnership (PRP) SuperPac “For a Better Tomorrow” has already invested heavily in supporting the election of Smith ($45,201) and Ozaki ($44,544), my guess is the SuperPac money will continue funding media support of both.

Those candidates setting now in the bottom half of the list definitely have a hill to climb. To win, they must be relentless in their commitment, and focus their energy campaigning the old fashion way – on the streets and in the neighborhoods.

Please, take a look, crunch the numbers yourself, then find a candidate you like and help them!

#1 KANESHIRO, Arryl J.  8,214
#2 HOLLAND, Fern Anuenue   8,193
#3 OZAKI, Todd R. 8,027
#4 CORREA, Michelle Kaleiohi  7,434
#5 BULOSAN, Addison 6,301
#6 SHIGEMOTO, Taylor H.  5,284
#7 APPLEGATE, Paul Noboru  5,279
#8 DECOSTA, Billy D  5,073
#9 SMITH, Dane  4,761
#10 COOTS, Mike  4,110 
#11 MARTIN, Umi  3,990
#12 RAPOZO, Cheree  3,447
#13 KAIMINAAUAO, Keola   2,872 
#14 MATTOS, John H. (Scooby)   2,394