Kaua‘i Mayor Derek Kawakami told Hawai’i Public Radio’s Catherine Cruz last week, ”I think ultimately I’d like to make a run for either one of the seats on the fifth floor at the state Capitol…” (either lieutenant governor or governor).

Yet just a few months ago in September, Kauai Now reported, “In cooperation with Sen. Kouchi, Mayor Kawakami has declared with the Hawaiʻi Spending Commission that he intends to run for Hawaiʻi Senate District 8 in 2026,” Dan Giovanni, Chair of Friends of Derek Kawakami.

Perhaps the most revealing statement in the HPR interview was Kawakami saying, “I’m not one to buck the system or take people out. I’m more of somebody that’s always just been more patient, and take a look for what window of opportunity is going to open.”

Translation: He’s cut a deal with Senator Kouchi, and will run for Kouchi’s Kaua‘i Senate seat (with Kouchi’s support) in 2026, and Kouchi will run for Mayor (endorsed by Kawakami).

Kouchi ran for Mayor in 2002 falling 1,657 votes short, and losing to Brian Baptiste.

Further guessing and speculation: Kawakami will then sit comfortably in the Kaua’i Senate seat awaiting the 2030 election cycle when both the LG and the Governor’s seat are “open”.

Still further wild-card guessing and total speculation: Recently reelected to a 6 year term, U.S. Senator Mazie Hirono who is 77 years old, will one day retire. When she does, all hell will break loose on the political front.

Everybody and their mother will be seeking to take her place including but not limited to: Rep. Jill Tokuda, L.G. Sylvia Luke, and perhaps even Governor Josh Green. To be clear there will be many names on this list (including a Republican or two)…but I’ll leave that speculation for another day.

Should Senator Hirono retire “between elections” Hawai’i law says, ”Pending the election, the governor makes a temporary appointment to fill the vacancy by selecting a person from a list of three (3) prospective appointees submitted by the same political party as the prior incumbent.”

Such a retirement could be planned and timed in advance to “protect the seat” and assure whoever assumes the position is “the right person”, or the retirement could be sudden and unplanned due to health or other unforeseen circumstances.

Taking the speculation even further down the rabbit hole: Governor Green could in theory appoint himself to the U.S. Senate seat, triggering the ascension of L.G. Luke to be Governor. The Senate President by law would then assume the L.G. seat.

Big deep breathe: Let’s set the speculation aside for a moment and get back to what we actually know to be true.

Mayor Kawakami has said publicly he wants to be the Governor or Lieutenant Governor of Hawai’i but has filed a campaign spending report stating he intends to run for the State Senate District 8 (Kaua‘i).

Senator Kouchi who presently represents District 8 has supported Kawakami’s fundraising efforts. In 2002 Kouchi ran for Kaua’i Mayor and lost.

Former Mayor, now Councilmember Bernard Carvalho, and Kaua’i Council Chair (and former Mayoral candidate) Mel Rapozo are both likely considering a 2026 Mayoral run.

It’s important to remember that no one ever simply retires or voluntarily steps down. Politicians tend to stay in office until they lose an election or pass away.

So it seems one likely scenario is Kouchi, Carvalho, Rapozo in a 3 way race for Mayor and Kawakami walks into the Kaua’i State Senate seat, and waits patiently there for his chance to move to the 5th floor.

But of course anything could happen. Senator Mazie Hirono’s plans are a wild card, as are the political aspirations of other possible Kaua’i candidates including incumbent Councilmember Arryl Kaneshiro and former Councilmember Mason Chock.

Yes – it’s fun to speculate.

Gary Hooser – first published in The Garden Island 11/27/24