From a purely political perspective, Lieutenant Governor Sylvia Luke is in a pretty tough spot.

The candidate filing deadline is June 2, and the all-important Primary Election is on August 8 — less than six months away.

But there’s almost NO way the “$35,000 in a paper bag” investigations will be completed and resolved by August 8, much less by June 2.

The entire upcoming election cycle will be dominated by this issue, and the potential implications are massive — and massively unpredictable.

Unsurprisingly, Lt. Gov. Luke is getting shredded in the headlines…

“Sylvia Luke Quietly Took Thousands From This Lobbyist Linked To Cullen”
–Honolulu Civil Beat

“Unreported donations complicate lieutenant governor’s credibility challenge”
–Hawaii News Now

“Green cancels D.C. trip to avoid having Sylvia Luke fill in as governor”
–Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Luke has not been charged, nor even formerly accused, of any crime. She may be totally innocent of any criminal wrongdoing — but from a political perspective, it does not matter. The headlines have already provided enough fodder for countless campaign “hit pieces” regardless of her actual culpability, or extenuating circumstances.

It would be impossible, I think, for Luke or ANY candidate to effectively counter allegations and rebuild public trust before the Primary.

And who knows what new headlines might be in tomorrow’s news?

So: Luke will stay in and slug it out, or resign from her Lt. Gov. seat.

Either way. we’re headed for a shakeup on many levels.

According to the State Constitution, here is the order of succession, should Luke resign:

1) Senate President: Ronald Kouchi
2) House Speaker: Nadine Nakamura
3) Attorney General: Anne Lopez

Wrap your head around THAT.

Would Senator Kouchi agree to take over as Lt. Gov.? Would he let Representative Nakamura walk into the #2 spot in Hawai‘i’s government?

I can’t imagine BOTH politicians refusing the job and giving it to the Attorney General, who’s already being accused of having a conflict of interest because she was appointed by the Governor’s office.

Incidentally, Kouchi and Governor Josh Green both also received several thousand dollars in campaign donations from the same lobbyist, Tobi Solidum, during the same general time period (January 2022) as Lt. Gov. Luke. (per Hawai‘i Public Radio)

It gets even nuttier. If Kouchi or Nakamura became Lt. Gov., who on Kauaʻi might step up to run for THEIR seats in the House and Senate?

Who will throw their hat in the ring to challenge the Lt. Gov. if she doesn’t resign?

The first name that comes to mind: Kauaʻi Mayor Derek Kawakami.

Mayor Kawakami has been positioning himself to run for SOMETHING big since he first announced his campaign for a Kauaʻi Senate seat (wink wink) in September 2024. At the time, Kouchi was right there next to him, cheering him on and helping him raise money.

However, shortly thereafter, Kouchi said publicly he has no intention of retiring and in fact is running for reelection.

And Kawakami has said he would never run against Kouchi… but is more interested in being Governor or Lieutenant Governor.

Boom kanani! There it is.

Kawakami seems perfectly positioned. With strong name recognition, and a bank balance of $236,000, he can hit the ground running and be on his way to the 5th floor in just five months.

So yes, Kawakami couldn’t have planned this any better.

What could go wrong?

Well, for one thing, there’s Representative Della Au Belatti and a handful of other smart, hardworking, and outspoken members of the House of Representatives — any one of whom would make an excellent challenger to Luke.

They’ve been at the forefront of the “$35,000 in a paper bag” debacle, proactively seeking an independent investigation, beating the drum incessantly in support of campaign finance reform, and against the “pay to play” good old boy past practices.

One of them might very well have their eye on the Lt. Gov.’s office.

Oh, yes, it’s fun to speculate… Unless, of course, you’re the sitting Lieutenant Governor, under investigation by the Hawaiʻi Attorney General, the United States Attorney, the Campaign Spending Commission, the unforgiving court of public opinion, and possibly the state legislature itself.

Gary Hooser
Former State Senator and Councilmember
Former candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2010 and NO, I’m not running again anytime soon 😉