2024 will be a big year in national politics but locally on Kauaʻi it may be a bit “ho hum”. There’s no Governors race, no Mayors race, our 4 state legislative seats seem locked up, and movement on the Council will likely be minimal.

While 2024 may or may not provide much local excitement, 2026 is for sure going to be big.

In 2026, Kauaʻi will elect a new Mayor and more than likely at least 3 new Council Members. In addition the Governor and the Lieutenant Governor are both up for re-election. Also all 3 State House House and our single State Senate seat will be up.

Mayor Derek Kawakami will complete his final term as Mayor in 2026.

This of course begs the question: Who is the heir apparent? Who is most likely to run? Who has a chance of winning?

These questions turn quickly to the obvious: Who has run before? Who already has name recognition? Who among council members has consistently finished at the top of that voting pile?

The present Council Chair Mel Rapozo has already run for Mayor twice first in 2008 and then again in 2018. I’m guessing he’s thinking “third time’s a charm”.

Former Council Member Mason Chock received more votes than any other Council candidate in 2020 and 2018 prior to getting termed out and unable to run in 2022.

Most political observers would say both are strong potential candidates for Mayor in 2026. But who else? What other well known and respected community members are out there looking to “step up” to a higher level of service?

The obvious elephant in the room is whether or not former Mayor Bernard Carvalho will seek that office again. He is legally able to run as the Charter states “No person shall serve as mayor for more than two consecutive full terms.”

The Kauaʻi Council likewise has term limits supported by similar Charter language.

The interpretation of the Charter term limit provision is that if one “sits out” a term they can then run again.

Council members Felicia Cowden and KipuKai Kuali’i are also both “termed out” in 2026 (assuming they’re reelected in 2024).

Translation: It’s quite possible there will be at least 3 if not 4 “open seats” (no incumbent running) for the election to Kauaʻi County Council in 2026. Kuali’i and Cowden are not able to run and it’s highly likely that either Rapozo and/or Carvalho will leave the Council to run for Mayor. IMHO.

Who else might run for Mayor? Who will be running to fill those vacant Council seats? What will then former Mayor Kawakami do (he’s far to young to just sit on the sidelines and watch).

Assuming Carvalho runs, conventional wisdom is that he would be the front-runner. While his term on the Council has been uneventful, some would even say uninspiring – in the political world he seems to excel at making others smile.

Rapozo on the other hand is a true populist and knows how to fire up a crowd. If he should manage to follow through on some of his big ideas and table thumping speeches, I believe he could actually win.

Chock, is a guy that inspires trust and confidence and he’s able to step across lines, connect with a variety of perspectives, and build alliances. If he chooses to run, he also would be a formidable force at the ballot box. Or maybe he runs for election to get back on the Council? Or perhaps he’s had enough of politics and prefers working in the private or nonprofit sector -still doing solid community work but without the hassles of campaigns and elections?

Who will fill those 3 (at least) Council seats? That’s very hard to say and today there’s not enough room to say it – given my 630 word limit for this (The Garden Island) column 😉

Note to myself: Write something up similarly for each County – across the island chain. #itsfuntospeculate