The upcoming primary election ballot for Kaua’i at first glance looks a little boring – but read through because it’s not.

Not one member of our state legislative delegation has a primary challenger.

US Representative Jill Tokuda is also running unopposed.

State Senator Ronald Kouchi is not up for re-election until 2026.

Mayor Kawakami’s term expires in 2026 so he’s not on the ballot. Governor Josh Green is not up for re-election until 2026.

US Senator Mazie Hirono is facing two primary challengers, but expected to win without lifting a finger.

There’s no Presidential vote until November.

The nonpartisan Office of Hawaiian Affairs (OHA) races do have numerous candidates running for various seats.

Incumbent Dan Ahuna is running for re-election to the Kaua’i seat has served us well and certainly will have my vote.

Former Congressman Kai Kahele is also a standout candidate running for the Hawaii Island OHA seat – (elected statewide). Full disclosure: I was a strong supporter of Kahele in his 2022 run for Governor and remain a strong supporter in his race for OHA.

And while I’m in the full disclosure mode, I positively love Council candidate Fern Holland. I’ve known, worked with, and served alongside Fern for many years, and my first and possibly only vote for Council will be for Holland.

Which brings me to why it‘s important we show up on August 10.

While the so-called “top-of-the-ticket” is unquestionably boring, the Council race is a place our one vote can make a difference.

To be clear, my perspective is based on personally knowing to some extent, every single one of the incumbents, and many of the challengers.

But…I’ll do my best to stick with the facts and history of past elections, leaving personalities on the side.

There are 17 candidates running for 7 positions. Each voter may cast “up to” 7 votes.

The top 14 vote-getters move through the primary and on to the general.

All 7 incumbents are running for re-election and (unless some October surprise happens in July) it’s easy to predict all will be in the top 14. It’s also a given that former Councilmember Arryl Kaneshiro and Fern Holland who finished just below Kagawa in 2022 will finish strong in the primary.

Bottom line: The top 9 slots are pretty much already locked in and positions 6, 7, 8, and 9, are where most of the “movement” must/will be.

Incumbent councilmembers DeCosta and Kagawa were almost tied for the bottom #7 slot in 2022, then Kagawa lost it coming in at #8 with Holland at #9.

2024 Political Reality: For either or both of the two strongest challengers to win, either or both of the two weakest incumbents must lose.

Experienced voters will look at theses dynamics and vote or “plunk” accordingly.

For those not familiar with the term, “plunking“ means not casting all 7 council votes and thus inadvertently helping your 6th or 7th choice beat your 1st and 2nd choices.

Experienced voters will just cast 1 vote, or a small handful perhaps 4 or 5, certainly not all 7.

No disrespect intended for the 8 candidates who ultimately fall into the bottom 8 slots.

There’s always the next election and 2026 will be a most interesting and important one. in 2026 we will elect a new Kauai Mayor, and two incumbent Councilmembers will be “termed out” thus ensuring the election of two new councilmembers.

But there’s more.

In 2026 there will be at least two council openings created by term limits PLUs those openings created by Councilmembers (Carvalho? Rapozo? Kaneshiro?) who decide to run for Mayor in 2026!

Translation-In 2026 there will be at least 3 new councilmembers elected, plus a new Mayor, plus our State Senate seat and all 3 House seats will be up again. And there will be a governors race.

So please show up on August 10, but know also that the excitement of 2026 is right around the corner.
Gary Hooser
As published 06/19/24 in TGI